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A major painting by Japanese artist Yoshitomo Nara is heading to auction this November with an estimate of $10 million to $15 million. The work, In the Milky Lake / Thinking One (2011), will be offered through Loïc Gouzer’s Fair Warning app on November 19. At 8.5 feet by 6 feet, it is the largest Nara painting ever to appear at auction.
A Rare and Significant Work
Unlike many of Nara’s well-known images, this painting does not feature a defiant or menacing child. Instead, the central figure has her eyes closed and a calm expression. Her body is half-submerged in a pale pool of water. The painting has remained in private hands for 14 years.
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Before the sale, the work will be exhibited in Chelsea at 534 West 22nd Street from November 6 to 19. The venue has been designed to resemble a Japanese temple. The auction itself will run alongside the major November New York sales from Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips.
The Story Behind the Painting
Nara completed this work in 2011, the same year the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami devastated northeastern Japan. The disaster struck the region where he grew up. For a time, he could not paint at all. When he returned to his studio, his style had shifted noticeably. His familiar cast of angry children gave way to quieter, more reflective figures.
In the Milky Lake / Thinking One was the only major painting he finished that year. Since then, it has appeared in numerous museum exhibitions, including his 2021 retrospective at the Los Angeles County Museum of Art, shows at the Guggenheim Bilbao, Museum Frieder Burda, and the Hayward Gallery in London. Nara also included it in his 2015 book Self-Selected Works: Paintings.
Market Outlook and Gallery Shift
Gouzer, who founded Fair Warning after leaving Christie’s, believes collectors are ready to reassess contemporary art. He pointed to a period of speculative buying between 2021 and 2023 that drove up prices before the market corrected sharply. “There was a lot of not very interesting contemporary art that was pushed hard and then crashed, deservedly,” he told ARTnews.
However, Gouzer argues that Nara stands apart. “Nara is as blue chip as it gets for contemporary art,” he said. He also noted that Nara’s relatively small output makes his work genuinely scarce. “His art is great and also it’s really rare,” Gouzer added.
Nara’s auction record currently stands at $24.9 million, set at Sotheby’s Hong Kong in 2019 for Knife Behind Back (2000). A comparable work, In the Milky Lake (2012), sold for $12.8 million at Sotheby’s Hong Kong in 2023. Meanwhile, in November 2025, David Zwirner announced it would represent Nara after his 14-year association with Pace Gallery. Zwirner will open Nara’s first solo show with the gallery across two Chelsea locations on November 5. Gouzer believes the gallery change could generate fresh market interest. He said he would not be surprised to see a major Nara painting eventually sell for $30 million or even $40 million.
