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With the midterm elections just one month away, NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki appeared on TODAY on October 6, 2026, to break down the latest polling numbers and assess where key races stand across the country.
Senate and House Races Under the Microscope
Kornacki walked viewers through the current state of both the Senate and the House. He outlined which chambers appear competitive and where the balance of power could shift after Election Day.
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His analysis covered the most closely watched battleground states. Those races, he explained, will likely determine which party controls Congress heading into the next legislative session.
Key Issues Driving Voter Decisions
Beyond the horse-race numbers, Kornacki also addressed the major issues weighing on voters’ minds. He discussed how those concerns are shaping the political landscape in competitive districts and states.
Polling data, he noted, continues to show a divided electorate. However, certain issues are proving especially influential in swing states that both parties are targeting heavily in the final weeks of campaigning.
Final Stretch of the Campaign Season
The midterm analysis comes as political activity intensifies nationwide. Candidates and party leaders are making aggressive final pushes to mobilize supporters before November.
Kornacki’s appearance on TODAY offered viewers a data-driven look at where the races stand. His breakdown highlighted the states and districts most likely to decide the overall outcome on Election Night.
As one of NBC News’s most recognized election analysts, Kornacki regularly translates complex polling data into clear, accessible insights for a broad audience. His October 6 appearance underscored just how competitive and consequential this midterm cycle has become, with control of both chambers of Congress potentially at stake.
