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Democrats have reversed significant voter registration losses in several key battleground states ahead of this year’s midterm elections, according to a new analysis by NBC News’ Decision Desk. The findings suggest the party is recovering ground it lost following its 2024 presidential election defeat, though the gains remain incomplete in some states.
The analysis used voter file data from TargetSmart, a progressive data firm, covering seven competitive states that register voters by party: Arizona, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. These states were among the closest in the 2024 election.
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Republicans Made Major Gains After the 2024 Election
From late 2024 through late 2025, Republicans improved their voter registration margins over Democrats in all seven states. The GOP’s net gains were particularly large in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, where Republicans added roughly 100,000 more registrants than Democrats in each state during that period.
In Pennsylvania alone, Republicans recorded a net voter registration gain of more than 110,000 from late 2024 to late 2025. That figure carries added weight in a state where Donald Trump won by approximately 120,000 votes in 2024.
However, the picture for Democrats was not entirely bleak even during that difficult stretch. In Pennsylvania, Democrats still gained around 22,000 new registrants during 2025. Those gains were offset by approximately 43,000 net losses from party-switching and around 90,000 registrants leaving the voter rolls altogether.
Democrats Reverse the Trend in Five States
From late 2025 through mid-2026, Democrats outpaced Republicans in net new registrations in five of the seven states: Arizona, Maine, Nevada, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. In New Hampshire and North Carolina, Democrats slowed their losses but did not fully reverse them.
In Pennsylvania, Democrats gained a net of around 46,000 registrants from the end of 2025 through the summer of 2026. New registrants contributed roughly 45,000 to that total, while party switchers added around 11,000. Those gains more than offset the more modest losses from voters leaving the rolls.
Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chair Eugene DePasquale credited an aggressive voter registration push he launched after taking over in September 2025. He said approximately 150 staffers are now actively engaging voters across the state. “Having conversations with people in every single corner of our commonwealth, listening to their concerns, listening to their issues and making a case of why they should register as Democrats,” DePasquale said. He also pointed to Trump’s growing unpopularity as a contributing factor.
The broader Democratic recovery also coincides with a period of rising public backlash against President Trump. Additionally, competitive Democratic primaries focused on the party’s future direction helped drive registration activity in several states.
North Carolina Remains a Republican Stronghold
North Carolina stands out as a continued bright spot for Republicans. For the first time in the state’s history, the Republican Party holds a lead in voter registration. Republicans gained nearly 100,000 net registrants in North Carolina from late 2024 to late 2025. Democrats managed to limit their net losses to around 16,000 from late 2025 through last month.
Felice Pete, a Republican National Committee member from North Carolina, acknowledged that Democrats traditionally held an advantage in voter registration efforts. She credited conservative organizations such as Turning Point USA and Americans for Prosperity for helping Republicans close that gap through door-knocking campaigns and community events. “It’s almost like evangelizing, if you will,” she said.
Nevertheless, a closer look at the North Carolina data reveals a more encouraging trend for Democrats. While new registrants gave Republicans a net gain of around 11,000 in 2025, Democrats led among new registrants by approximately 6,000 in 2026.
Unaffiliated Voters Continue to Grow
Across most of the states analyzed, the pool of unaffiliated voters continued to expand. In five of the seven states — Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — the number of voters registered outside the two major parties grew steadily from late 2024 through mid-2026. Maine and New Jersey saw a slight decline in that share.
Furthermore, new voters in all seven states are registering as unaffiliated at a notably higher rate than existing voters on the rolls. Much of the movement away from the Democratic Party involves Democrats choosing to become unaffiliated rather than switching to the Republican Party.
The NBC News analysis also found that voters who left the rolls after the 2024 election were far less likely to have voted in the first place. In Pennsylvania, for example, 2024 turnout among people who later left the rolls was just 37%, compared with 81% for those who remained registered. That pattern suggests the raw registration losses may overstate the actual electoral impact for Democrats.
While party registration does not perfectly predict voting behavior, the Democratic recovery in voter registration across several critical states adds to signs of political momentum for the party heading into the midterms. Arizona, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania all feature competitive Senate or gubernatorial races this cycle, and New Jersey hosts a closely watched House contest.
