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A coalition of Alberta’s most prominent business leaders has come out strongly against provincial separation, warning that leaving Canada would trigger severe economic consequences for the province. The Calgary Chamber of Commerce released an open letter on Tuesday, accompanied by an independent economic analysis, urging Albertans to reject separatism ahead of a referendum vote in three weeks.
Business Leaders Unite Against Separation
The letter carries signatures from the chief executives of major companies, including AltaGas, ATCO, AltaLink, Capital Power, Keyera, BHE Transmission and Chirp Foods Inc. Chirp Foods is Canada’s largest McDonald’s franchise business. Tourism Calgary, Calgary Economic Development and a former CEO of Trans Mountain Corp. also signed. The chamber said it expects more signatories to join in the coming days.
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“We must remain at the table and prioritize relationships, opportunities and stability that have helped make this province and this country prosperous,” the letter states. It adds that Alberta can take pride in its identity while remaining confident in its future within Canada.
Albertans will soon vote on 10 referendum questions. One of those questions asks whether the province should remain in Canada or begin the process of holding a formal separation referendum.
Economic Analysis Warns of Major Losses
University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe conducted the accompanying economic study. He estimates that separation would push Alberta’s trade costs up by five to eight per cent. That range mirrors what the United Kingdom experienced after leaving the European Union.
Alberta is already the most trade-exposed jurisdiction in Canada. Nearly one in three Alberta workers holds a job in a sector significantly vulnerable to trade disruptions. As a result, higher trade costs could eliminate up to 175,000 jobs in the province. The annual economic hit could reach as high as $62 billion.
Furthermore, Tombe found that separation would leave Alberta facing a $9-billion fiscal shortfall. Closing that gap would require either a 13 per cent sales tax, a 10 per cent corporate income tax increase or a 40 per cent cut to transfers that Albertans currently receive. Those transfers include the Canada Child Benefit and old age security payments.
“When you hear something like GDP contracting, it seems like an abstract statistical notion, but this translates directly into real incomes and wages,” Tombe told reporters. “How much goods and services can you afford to purchase with an hour of work?”
Chamber CEO Warns of Lost Alberta Advantage
Calgary Chamber president and CEO Deborah Yedlin described separation as scoring on Alberta’s own net simply to send a message. She warned that the so-called Alberta advantage — low taxes, no sales tax, strong public services — would disappear under separation.
“I grew up with this notion of the Alberta advantage — no sales tax, low taxes, good education, health care, social services,” she told reporters. “All of that would disappear and we would not be able to sustain that level of support for Albertans.”
She added that the consequences would create a damaging cycle. Without investment, the province could not generate tax revenue. Without revenue, it could not maintain services without fundamentally changing how it operates.
Yedlin also pointed to the current moment as one of significant opportunity. Global demand for stable energy supplies remains strong, driven in part by conflicts in the Middle East and Russia. Meanwhile, the federal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney has introduced a series of policy shifts that the business community has welcomed, along with a clear commitment to building new energy infrastructure.
She acknowledged that some voters may feel inclined to support a separation referendum as a protest after a decade of policies under former prime minister Justin Trudeau that many in the energy sector viewed as hostile. However, she urged Albertans to look forward rather than backward.
“It’s easy to look in the rear-view mirror and it’s easy to be aggrieved and to focus on that,” Yedlin said. “It’s much harder to be an optimist, but we’re at a point in time where we need to have that optimism. This is a different set of circumstances, a different environment for Alberta, for the energy sector and we do need to look forward.”
Business Leaders Acknowledge Sensitive Workplace Dynamics
Yedlin also addressed why some business leaders had previously hesitated to enter the debate. She suggested that many did not want to alienate employees who feel sympathy toward the separatist cause.
However, she argued that companies can take a clear public position while still respecting the right of individual workers to vote as they choose. “Ultimately, where you need to be is on the right side of history,” she said.
The open letter and economic analysis together represent one of the most organized responses from Alberta’s business community ahead of the upcoming referendum vote.
