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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has confirmed that he examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action against Canada, describing the exercise as responsible risk management rather than a prediction of likely events.
In a wide-ranging interview published Wednesday by the New York Times, Carney declined to elaborate on the specifics of that assessment. However, he defended the decision to consider even unlikely scenarios. “I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney told the Times. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to (prepare).”
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Trump’s Annexation Rhetoric and Military Speculation
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested that Canada should become the 51st American state. In January 2025, he ruled out using military force to achieve that goal. However, he has since said he would consider using “economic force” to pressure Canada into joining the United States.
Carney’s acknowledgment that his government studied military risk scenarios reflects the broader tension between the two countries. The Canada-U.S. trade relationship has deteriorated sharply in recent months. After trade negotiations collapsed in mid-August, Trump imposed 50 per cent tariffs on $28 billion worth of Canadian goods the following day. Canada responded with retaliatory tariffs in early September. Trump also signed an executive order directing U.S. government procurement systems to identify and remove products of Canadian origin.
F-35 Review and Starlink Alternatives
During the New York Times interview, Carney also addressed Canada’s procurement plans. His government is conducting a political review of Canada’s plan to purchase a full fleet of F-35 stealth fighter jets. That review began more than a year ago, partly in response to the escalating trade dispute with Washington.
In addition, Carney discussed Canada’s efforts to reduce its dependence on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service. The government is actively exploring alternative providers as part of a broader effort to diversify away from U.S.-controlled infrastructure.
Carney and Trump Continue Talks Despite Trade Breakdown
Despite the collapse of trade negotiations, Carney confirmed that he and Trump continue to speak “frequently.” He has made similar remarks in recent weeks. Earlier this month, at a joint news conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Carney said the two leaders can “compartmentalize” their differences. He noted that part of their shared responsibility involves working together on global issues, including the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Trump took to social media on Wednesday to claim that Canada is “destroying itself” by allowing millions of people into the country “essentially unchecked and unvetted.” He offered no evidence to support those claims and described the situation as a “Liberal takeover that will end very badly.”
Carney and Trump did not meet in person this week, even though both attended the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly. It marked Carney’s first visit to the United States since trade talks broke down last month.
