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James Blair, a senior political adviser to President Donald Trump, says he believes Republicans can hold their congressional majorities in November’s midterm elections — even as the party faces significant challenges heading into the fall campaign season.
Blair, who now leads Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, described his outlook as “cautiously optimistic” in an interview with NBC News’ new Saturday podcast series, Here’s the Scoop: Election Edition, hosted by chief White House correspondent Garrett Haake. “I won’t predict how many seats are going to be in either chamber come November,” Blair said. “But I do think there is a path for us to retain both majorities and defy history, for sure.”
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Republicans face a familiar structural problem. The party that controls the White House historically loses congressional seats during midterm elections. Trump’s approval rating has also fallen to new lows. An NBC News Decision Desk Poll this month found that only 36% of U.S. adults approve of how Trump handles his job. His approval on the Iran war stands even lower, at just 31%.
Blair Downplays Iran War and Economic Concerns
Blair served as deputy White House chief of staff until April. He previously worked as Trump’s political director during the 2024 campaign and maintains a close working relationship with White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, who managed that campaign.
Despite the president’s low marks on the Iran war, Blair argued that voter concern about the conflict has begun to ease. “As things have settled down and people see that we’re in control and are coming in for a landing, you’re seeing numbers with voters that are sensitive to that moving back in the Republicans’ direction,” he said. He pointed to the memorandum of understanding signed between the U.S. and Iran as a stabilizing moment.
However, the conflict has not quieted entirely. Earlier this week, the U.S. military struck five Iranian oil tankers after Iran hit two U.S. warships. On Wednesday, Trump told Republicans gathered in Dallas for a GOP midterm convention that the war would not end before Election Day. Blair nonetheless framed the military action as a historic success. “The president made a correct decision in the scope of history to solve a problem that has been bipartisan-agreed as a problem for 47 years in this country,” he said.
On the economy, Blair also pushed back against pessimism. An August Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 32% of registered voters approved of Trump’s handling of the economy. Meanwhile, 37% said Democrats had a better economic plan, compared to 36% who said the same about Republicans. Blair attributed ongoing economic difficulties to policies from the Biden administration, which left office in January 2025. “We’re still cleaning up that mess, and we need more time to finish the job,” he said. “That’s what we’re asking for in November.”
Inflation stood at 2.8% year over year in February 2025, Trump’s first full month back in office. It dipped to 2.4% in April, the month Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariff regime. Since then, both those tariffs and the Iran war energy crisis have pushed inflation back up to 3.4% as of August.
Trump as a Midterm Turnout Tool
Trump has told reporters he plans to campaign in 35 races and has urged supporters to “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.” Blair embraced that approach. “Democrats are already using him as a turnout tool for their voters, whether Republicans do that or not,” he said. “We want to use all of the tools at our disposal to help our voters.”
Blair specifically pointed to low-propensity male voters — men who vote in presidential elections but tend to skip midterms — as a group Trump could uniquely motivate. He described a typical target voter as someone who “works 40 to 60 hours a week, is not super engaged in politics.” Blair argued that Trump could give that voter a reason to show up by framing the national stakes of the election.
At the same time, Blair acknowledged that the 2024 coalition will not replicate itself exactly. He noted that Latino voters backed the Republican nominee in record numbers in 2024 but suggested that level of support may not hold in 2026. “Do I think Republicans generically will get the same percentage with Hispanics in ’26 as they did in ’24? Probably not,” he said. “But will Hispanics still overperform for Republicans relative to where they did in 2018 and 2022? Yes, I think that’s likely.”
Latino voter behavior could prove decisive in several key congressional districts. Republicans’ three top targets in Texas — the 28th, 34th and 35th districts — are all overwhelmingly Latino. Any erosion of Republican support among those voters could threaten the party’s ability to flip those seats.
Vice President JD Vance reinforced Blair’s message at a private breakfast in Dallas on Thursday, telling Republicans from battleground states: “We’ve got to nationalize this election. We’ve got to talk about all the crazy things the Democrats are doing.”
MAGA Inc. Deploys Resources in Key Races
Blair also addressed the financial firepower MAGA Inc. plans to bring to the midterms. As of its most recent campaign finance disclosure at the end of July, the group held more than $400 million. Blair dismissed any suggestion that Trump might hold back that money. “I can assure that the president will leave it all on the field to keep his majorities,” he said.
One race drawing significant attention is Texas, where state Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a Republican primary. Paxton carried Trump’s endorsement, but Cornyn had broad party support and a strong fundraising record. Public polling shows a competitive general election race between Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who has outraised Paxton. On Saturday, MAGA Inc. booked $10 million in Texas TV ad time. Blair argued that Paxton’s image suffered from heavy primary spending against him, while Talarico faced no such attacks. “The resources have begun to be deployed now in earnest and will take care of that problem,” Blair said.
The New York Times reported Wednesday that MAGA Inc. is also channeling $49 million through a new group called No Going Back PAC to run Senate ads across the country. Blair acknowledged a widening battlefield of competitive races, including Alaska, where former Rep. Mary Peltola runs as the Democratic nominee against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.
That race carries an unusual complication. A third candidate — also named Dan Sullivan, a teacher — entered the race as well. Under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting rules, the top four primary finishers advance to the general election regardless of party. Blair accused national Democrats of deliberately recruiting Dan J. Sullivan to create voter confusion. “We know that the press release for that candidate was written by a consultant to Mary Peltola,” he said. Democrats have not claimed credit for recruiting the second Sullivan into the race.
Blair acknowledged the Alaska race is genuinely competitive. “Mary Peltola’s been elected statewide before,” he said. “We know this. We’re smart enough to read numbers. We know where things are. We’re going to fish where the fish are.”
