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compiled by: Emili TK
Obesity among adults in the United States saw a slight decrease last year, marking the first decline in over ten years, according to new research. The study suggests that this shift may partly be due to the growing popularity of weight loss medications such as Ozempic.
The findings, published in the JAMA Health Forum, highlight a notable reduction in obesity rates, particularly in the South, among women, and adults aged 66 to 75. The study analyzed the body mass index (BMI) of more than 16.7 million adults from 2013 to 2023 across various demographic groups and regions. BMI, though a widely used tool for measuring obesity, has limitations as it only considers the ratio of weight to height.
Researchers observed that obesity prevalence among U.S. adults dropped from 46% in 2022 to 45.6% in 2023. While these figures are slightly higher than estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) — which reports a 40% obesity rate from 2021 to 2023 — the decline is consistent with other recent data.
Regional and Demographic Variations
The decrease wasn’t uniform across all groups or regions, according to Benjamin Rader, a computational epidemiologist at Boston Children’s Hospital and one of the study’s authors.
“Obesity rates declined nationally, led by the South, but in some areas, the trend was reversed,” Rader said. For example, while obesity rates among Black Americans fell significantly, rates among Asian Americans increased.
The South’s decline is particularly noteworthy, as it had the highest per-capita usage of weight loss drugs based on insurance claim data. However, Rader cautioned that more research is needed to establish a direct link between these drugs and the reduction in obesity. The region’s disproportionately high number of Covid-19-related deaths among individuals with obesity may also have influenced the data.
Expert Perspectives on the Decline
Dr. Michael Weintraub, an endocrinologist at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, noted that the findings align with CDC data showing a slight drop in obesity from 2021 to 2023.
“This could signal the beginning of a shift in the obesity epidemic,” Weintraub said. However, he advised caution, stating, “It’s too soon to call this a lasting trend.”
Weight loss drugs, especially GLP-1 medications like Ozempic and Mounjaro, are a potential factor in the decline. These drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate appetite, are increasingly used to treat obesity and diabetes. Yet, experts emphasize the need for long-term studies to fully understand their impact on obesity trends.
Dr. Tannaz Moin, an endocrinologist at UCLA, pointed out that the study focused exclusively on GLP-1 drugs, which are only one subset of treatments for obesity. She highlighted the high cost of these medications, which may limit access and skew the data. Additionally, the study relied on insurance claims, potentially excluding individuals without coverage or those who paid out of pocket.
Moin expressed surprise at the observed BMI drop in older adults, noting that Medicare beneficiaries often face challenges accessing GLP-1 drugs. She referenced the Biden administration’s recent proposal to expand Medicare and Medicaid coverage for weight loss treatments as a potential game changer.
Cautionary Notes
Weintraub warned that temporary declines don’t always translate into lasting reductions. “We’ve seen fluctuations in obesity rates before, like the early 2000s dip in pediatric obesity reported by the CDC, only for rates to surge again in subsequent years,” he said.
The Path Forward
While the recent data offers hope, experts agree that more comprehensive research is necessary to determine whether these findings represent a true turning point in the fight against obesity. As new treatments gain traction and accessibility expands, the potential for broader societal impacts remains significant. For now, the decline serves as a promising signal, but its sustainability remains uncertain.
