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With just days remaining before the 2026 midterm elections, NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki says President Donald Trump is heading into this cycle in worse political shape than he was before his first midterms. Kornacki joined Meet the Press on November 1, 2026, to break down the final NBC News poll and assess which party holds the momentum heading into Election Day.
Kornacki Breaks Down the Final NBC News Poll
Kornacki presented data suggesting Trump faces steeper midterm odds this time around. The analysis pointed to shifting voter sentiment and competitive races in states that Republicans typically consider safe. His appearance focused on key battleground dynamics and what the polling data signals for both parties.
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Republicans are also playing defense in reliably red states, an unusual position just one week before Election Day. That development has added pressure to a party working to maintain its congressional standing under Trump’s second term.
Senate Control and Key Contested Races
Senator Tim Scott expressed strong confidence about Republican prospects in the Senate. He stated “absolutely, positively, unequivocally, yes” when asked whether Republicans would maintain Senate control. However, Scott also acknowledged that the midterm election is fundamentally about Trump and his record in office.
Meanwhile, a ballot dispute in Alaska has drawn national attention. Scott described the Peltola campaign’s approach as “immoral” and “unethical” amid the controversy. Representative Jamie Raskin called the Dan Sullivan ballot issue “stupid politics,” while adding that such situations do occur in American elections.
Democrats Eye Opportunities in Unexpected Districts
Democrats are also making moves in traditionally Republican territory. A Democratic House candidate running in deep-red Arkansas described the race as “tight and winnable.” Similarly, a Democrat running in a red Kentucky district broke with his party over what he called “terrible” Biden-era immigration policy, reflecting the complex local dynamics shaping individual contests.
On the national stage, political observers are watching closely to see how big midterm wins could position figures like Senator Jon Ossoff and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro for potential 2028 presidential runs. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker also declined to rule out a 2028 bid, saying the decision would be “all about what’s best for the people of Illinois.”
Election Integrity and Border Security in Focus
Election integrity also emerged as a key theme. Representative Raskin said the election would be safe “if the federal government stays out of it.” A former White House attorney added that the Trump administration is “doing everything they can to interfere” with the midterms.
Border security remains a top concern in competitive races. A border-state Democrat in a toss-up contest said both parties “have kicked the can” on the issue for too long. As Election Day approaches, the final NBC News poll and Kornacki’s analysis suggest a challenging environment for Republicans defending Trump’s second-term record.
