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Oil and gas prices climbed sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump’s self-declared “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine collapsed almost immediately after he announced it. Brent crude jumped 2% to nearly $108 per barrel, while U.S. crude rose more than 2% to around $94. Diesel futures also recovered fully from a modest dip the previous week.
The price surge arrives at a difficult moment politically. With midterm elections on November 3 just weeks away, Republicans face a tough battle to hold their congressional majorities. Voters across the country consistently cite high fuel costs as a major factor in how they plan to vote.
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According to AAA data, the national average price of diesel fuel on Monday stood at $6.26 per gallon. That figure represents a nearly 80% increase from the start of the year.
Trump’s Ceasefire Announcement Falls Apart
On Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social that both Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate halt to attacks on energy infrastructure. “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” he wrote.
However, within hours, Russia resumed strikes on Ukrainian energy targets. When reporters pressed Trump on Monday about why neither Kyiv nor Moscow had formally committed to the agreement, the president acknowledged he had not secured commitments from either side before making the announcement.
“They agreed, you know why? Because I said ‘You agree,'” Trump told reporters at the White House. When asked about getting Russian President Vladimir Putin to commit, Trump said simply, “We’re going to see what happens.” Asked whether he knew Russia had already violated the ceasefire, Trump replied, “I’m not sure about that,” before claiming there had been “violations on both sides.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his government learned about the ceasefire from media reports. Ukraine received no advance notice from the Trump administration. Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine remained open to a mutual agreement to stop targeting energy infrastructure, but only if Russia agreed to the same terms.
Meanwhile, Russia continued striking Ukrainian energy assets. Zelenskyy confirmed on Monday that a power plant in Kharkiv had recently been hit. “Ukraine has proposed many de-escalatory steps. Putin had one answer to all of them — ‘nyet,'” Zelenskyy said, using the Russian word for “no.” The Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied agreeing to any deal.
A Pattern Repeated from September
Trump’s Sunday announcement closely mirrored a similar post he made in September. At that time, he declared that Ukraine had agreed not to strike Russian energy targets and that Russia had agreed to do the same. That ceasefire also failed. Zelenskyy again said Ukraine’s participation depended on Russia’s compliance, which never came. Strikes on energy infrastructure by both sides continued throughout September without any slowdown.
The latest ceasefire attempt followed a separate announcement Trump made on Friday. He said Russia would supply millions of barrels of diesel fuel to what he called “the American and Global Marketplace.” The announcement came after a phone call between Trump and Putin that reportedly lasted more than an hour.
Trump said the deal would deliver “over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel” to global markets. That amount translates to roughly 2.25 million barrels — less than the United States consumes in a single day. Further details and logistics had not been announced by Monday.
Sanctions Eased and Allies Alarmed
To clear a legal path for the diesel deal, the U.S. Treasury Department announced a six-month suspension of fuel sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine. The move drew sharp criticism from Ukrainian officials, European allies and some U.S. lawmakers.
Trump defended the decision on Monday, calling it “the right choice for the American People.” He also said more diesel would become available “within a short period of time” if Russian refineries could produce it. In addition, Trump pressured G7 allies to release more diesel supplies and lifted domestic restrictions on an off-road variety of diesel fuel.
Russia said on Friday it would ease some of its export restrictions to accommodate the deal. However, it remained unclear how quickly that could happen.
Experts Doubt Russia Can Deliver
Energy analysts are deeply skeptical that Russia can meaningfully increase diesel exports in the near term. Ukrainian drone strikes have caused heavy damage to Russian oil and gas refineries deep inside Russian territory.
In a September report, analysts at the International Energy Agency noted that reported gasoline output in Russia had fallen by 20% compared with 2025 levels. Diesel production, they estimated, had dropped by nearly 30%. As a result, Russia restricted fuel exports to protect its own domestic supply.
Trump has focused heavily on diesel prices for weeks. Prices began rising after the U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran in February. In July, escalating conflict in the Russia-Ukraine war added further pressure. As Ukrainian drones targeted Russian energy facilities, Moscow responded by cutting diesel exports to preserve domestic stocks. Before those restrictions, Russia ranked among the world’s top exporters of refined oil products, including diesel.
Russia’s Friday pledge to lift some export restrictions raised questions about how fast any supply increase could realistically arrive, given the extent of the damage its refining sector has sustained.
