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Millions of Americans have already cast their ballots ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, and early voting data suggests strong enthusiasm heading into election day. NBC News Director of Elections John Lapinski has analyzed the figures and identified several key races worth watching closely on the night.
Early Voting Points to High Turnout
The volume of early votes recorded so far signals that overall midterm turnout could be notably high. Lapinski’s analysis highlights patterns in the data that reflect significant voter engagement across multiple states. However, analysts caution that early vote totals alone do not determine final outcomes.
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Early voting has become an increasingly important indicator in modern elections. Both parties closely monitor the figures to gauge enthusiasm and adjust their ground game strategies in the final days of a campaign.
Key Races to Watch on Election Night
Several competitive contests are drawing national attention as election day approaches. In Iowa, Senate candidate Josh Turek has stated he would not support impeaching President Trump. Meanwhile, candidate Ashley Hinson has also been in the spotlight, with a one-on-one interview drawing attention to her Senate campaign in the state.
In Ohio, a Democratic candidate is pushing to flip a House seat, arguing that voters are “ready for change.” Similarly, Kansas voters are placing affordability at the center of a competitive Senate race, according to reports from the state.
In Alaska, rising gas prices in rural communities could prove decisive in the Senate contest there. A separate report also exposed an alleged Democratic effort to place candidates on the ballot in the state, adding further complexity to the race.
Broader Issues Shaping the Midterms
Gun control has emerged as a key theme for Democratic candidates in rural areas. Several candidates are working to reshape the conversation around the issue in an effort to win back voters in those communities.
In Iowa, rising cancer rates linked to water quality concerns have also become a significant issue across multiple midterm races. Voters in the state are paying close attention to environmental health as they head to the polls.
President Trump is also facing backlash over his handling of Russia-related policy, including reported sanctions relief and a diesel deal that has drawn criticism. Additionally, Trump has continued to defend a campaign advertisement featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother, despite ongoing controversy surrounding it.
A Russian operative is also reportedly behind fake videos targeting Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, raising fresh concerns about foreign interference in the midterm cycle. Furthermore, analysts note that the so-called “manosphere” online community, which played a role in boosting Trump’s political rise, appears to be distancing itself from him ahead of this election.
Final Days of Campaigning
With election day fast approaching, candidates across the country are making their final push to voters. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has vowed to stand up to Trump in the lead-up to the midterms, signaling a combative final stretch in that state.
The Department of Justice has also launched a new legal effort tied to the midterm elections, though details remain limited. As early voting data continues to come in, all eyes are turning toward what is shaping up to be a closely contested and high-turnout midterm election on October 29, 2026.
