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Three federal byelections are taking place across Canada on Monday, with voters in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec heading to the polls. The Canada-U.S. trade war looms large over all three contests, shaping both the political mood and the stakes for each party. A new Ipsos poll for Global News shows the Liberals leading nationally with 44 per cent support, compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives, 10 per cent for the NDP and eight per cent for the Bloc Québécois.
North Vancouver-Capilano: Liberals Defend a Longtime Stronghold
The Liberals have held North Vancouver-Capilano since 2015, and they are fighting to keep it. The seat opened up after longtime MP Jonathan Wilkinson departed to become Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. During his time in Parliament, Wilkinson served as minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard, minister of Environment and Climate Change, and minister of Energy and Natural Resources before losing his cabinet post after the 2025 federal election.
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The Liberals are fielding Braeden Caley, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s former deputy chief of staff and a senior figure in his election campaign. Caley is returning to his home province to contest the seat. He faces Stephen Curran, a commercial lawyer running for the Conservatives who previously challenged Wilkinson in 2025. Curran has run social media attack ads questioning Caley’s ties to the local community.
The NDP’s candidate is Stephen Tweedale, a staffer for the local provincial MLA. His path looks difficult. The NDP received just four per cent of the vote in the riding during the 2025 federal election, reflecting the party’s broader collapse in support across the country.
Beaches-East York: A Familiar Seat Opens Up in Ontario
In Toronto, the riding of Beaches-East York is contested following the resignation of Nate Erskine-Smith. First elected in 2015, Erskine-Smith built a reputation as a Liberal willing to publicly criticize his own government. He held a brief ministerial role in the final days of Justin Trudeau’s leadership and continued in cabinet under Carney ahead of the 2025 election, before returning to the backbenches when Carney formed his post-election cabinet.
Erskine-Smith is now pursuing a seat on Toronto city council. He had also explored a run for the Ontario Liberal leadership but withdrew after losing a nomination contest. His former constituency office manager, Tanveer Shahnawaz, is carrying the Liberal banner in his place. Shannon Devine runs for the NDP, who finished third in 2025, while Jim Sybros represents the Conservatives.
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: Trade War Tensions Run High in Quebec
The third byelection takes place in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, a riding that became vacant after Carney appointed Conservative MP Richard Martel to the Senate. Martel had won the seat in 2025 by a narrow margin over both Bloc Québécois and Liberal candidates.
The Saguenay region, which includes this riding, has felt the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs more acutely than most parts of Canada. The area produces significant quantities of aluminum and forestry products, and it is home to a large number of dairy farmers. Canada’s supply management system for dairy has drawn particular criticism from Trump, making the trade dispute a deeply local concern for many voters there.
Dairy farmer and former president of a provincial dairy association Daniel Gobeil runs for the Liberals. Lawyer and teacher Régis Gaudreault seeks to reclaim the seat for the Conservatives. Caroline Dubé, who served as director of the office of Bloc MP Mario Simard, runs for the Bloc Québécois. Elections Canada issued a reminder this weekend that this is a federal byelection, separate from a provincial vote scheduled for September 26 in a Quebec riding that shares the same name.
What the Results Could Mean for Parliament
The Liberals currently hold 170 seats in the House of Commons, two short of a majority. However, with opposition parties holding just 166 seats combined, the government can pass legislation and survive confidence votes without relying on other parties. Winning all three ridings on Monday would lift the Liberal seat count to 173, further consolidating their position.
Four additional byelections remain for Carney to call in the coming months. Those vacancies stem from the departures of MPs Shaun Chen and Stephen Guilbeault, who officially resigned last Friday, as well as two Bloc Québécois MPs who stepped down to contest next month’s Quebec provincial election.
Polling suggests the trade conflict with the United States is boosting Liberal support in all three provinces holding byelections. The Ipsos survey found Liberal support at 46 per cent in British Columbia and 49 per cent in Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals led with 37 per cent, ahead of the Bloc at 33 per cent and the Conservatives at 22 per cent. Majorities in all three provinces also backed Canada holding firm against the U.S. on trade, even at the cost of higher tariffs. That figure reached 65 per cent in both B.C. and Ontario, and 57 per cent in Quebec.
