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A new poll shows that fewer than one in four Albertans support moving forward with a binding vote on separation from Canada. However, the survey also suggests that several other questions on Monday’s referendum ballot could attract majority support.
The Ipsos poll, conducted exclusively for Global News, found that seven in 10 Albertans plan to vote for Alberta to remain a Canadian province. That figure has held steady since a previous poll in September. Meanwhile, the share of voters who support beginning the legal process toward a binding separation referendum rose three percentage points to 23 per cent.
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Support for separation is highest among men at 27 per cent, Albertans aged 35 to 54 at 27 per cent, and those living outside Calgary and Edmonton at 29 per cent. Only five per cent of respondents remain undecided, and two per cent say they will not vote at all.
A Quarter of Albertans Back Separation Vote
Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada, told Global News that even if every undecided voter ultimately chose yes on referendum day, the total would still fall short of what would be needed to trigger a separation vote. He noted, however, that 23 per cent still represents a significant portion of the population.
“Whether or not it is only a quarter of the population that decide that they’re going to vote yes — still not a small number. That’s a pretty big number,” Bricker said.
Ipsos conducted online interviews with 801 Albertans between October 13 and 16. The overall poll carries a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Other Referendum Questions May Fare Better
The referendum includes 10 questions in total. The first nine relate to immigration and the constitution. Bricker suggested those questions could perform better than the separation question on election night.
“What we’re seeing is that the status quo relationship with the rest of the country is not something that’s particularly popular in Alberta at the moment,” Bricker said. “They don’t see the solution as separating from the country. But I expect that some of those other questions might get themselves majorities on election night.”
Premier Danielle Smith has urged Albertans to vote yes on the first nine questions, arguing it would strengthen her hand in negotiations with the federal government. She has also stated that if the overall vote goes as polling suggests, she expects everyone to accept the result and move on. Leaders of the independence movement, however, have pushed back on that position.
High Voter Awareness and Turnout Expected
A separate Global News poll from September found that 76 per cent of Albertans already knew the referendum contained multiple questions. In addition, 81 per cent said they planned to vote, and 62 per cent indicated they would answer all 10 questions.
Global News will broadcast live referendum coverage from 8 p.m. MT to midnight on Globalnews.ca, YouTube, and the Global TV app. The app is available through Prime Video, Apple TV, Roku, and select smart TVs. Starting at 9 p.m., the special will also air live on all Global News stations across Alberta.
Anchors Dallas Flexhaug and Carole Anne Devaney will lead the broadcast. They will be joined by Ottawa bureau chief and veteran political reporter David Akin, along with a political panel hosted by anchor Blake Lough and reporters on the ground across the province.
