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Russia’s campaign of covert attacks and sabotage across Europe is intensifying, and senior officials warn that President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to act even more aggressively in the months ahead. As Washington weighs reducing its military footprint in Europe and remains occupied with other global conflicts, European leaders fear Moscow is exploiting the moment to intimidate Ukraine’s allies and test NATO’s resolve.
Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service released a formal assessment on Thursday warning that Russia will further escalate its hybrid warfare campaign in the coming months. The agency said the attacks will carry “greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past.” It also identified “a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia.”
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A Drone at a German Airport Changes the Conversation
A turning point came last month when authorities discovered a Russian drone carrying explosives at an airport in eastern Germany. The drone was found near a Ukrainian aircraft. Berlin formally blamed Russia for the thwarted attack and imposed a diplomatic freeze. Moscow denied any involvement.
The incident unsettled European security analysts. Ed Arnold, a senior associate fellow in international security at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said the episode shifted how officials think about the Russian threat. “It just showed that Putin’s risk calculations are getting more liberal,” Arnold said. “Everyone just got a bit freaked out by that, quite frankly.”
Shortly after, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unexpected visit to Moscow, where NATO was among the topics discussed.
Since then, incidents have continued to accumulate. Authorities have recorded disruptions at defence facilities in Estonia, rail networks in Poland, and the power grid in Germany. Many of these events have not been formally attributed to Russia, which has only deepened concern. Meanwhile, near-daily drone incursions into European airspace have fuelled anxiety in border communities across the continent.
Close Calls on NATO’s Doorstep
Earlier this month, a passenger train in Ukraine was struck by a drone less than two miles from the Polish border. European diplomats returning from Kyiv were travelling on the same rail line at the time. Former CIA Director David Petraeus was still at the station when the drone hit.
Just days later, NATO fighter jets shot down a drone that entered Lithuanian airspace. Lithuania is one of the Baltic member states that analysts consider a potential target for future Kremlin pressure, given its proximity to Russia.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk added to the alarm last week. He said Russia plans to launch drone and missile attacks against European countries while framing them as accidental, in order to weaken any coordinated response.
Russia has denied involvement in all of the incidents. Putin accused European leaders earlier this month of seeking “a war against Russia” and “frightening their populations with an imaginary threat.” However, Russian state news agency RIA briefly published and then deleted an opinion piece outlining a scenario for a rapid Russian military strike against a NATO state, with a specific focus on the Baltic nations. RIA said the article did not align with its editorial policy or Russia’s state policy.
Experts Warn of Escalation Risk
Despite Moscow’s denials, Western analysts say the overall pattern is unmistakable. Katja Bego, a senior research fellow with the Europe programme at Chatham House in London, said the frequency and boldness of the attacks make them increasingly hard to distinguish from outright acts of war.
“The Kremlin is playing with fire here,” Bego said. “The risk of more serious escalation — even if unintended — is very real.”
William Alberque, a former senior NATO official based in Berlin, said Russia’s strategy appears designed to expose divisions within the Western alliance. “I think they are trying to show Europe they can act without consequences, and more recently, to show Europe that the U.S. will not come to their rescue,” he said. “It’s worrisome.”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday. At a media briefing afterward, Rubio said Washington was concerned the Ukraine war could “metastasize and spread into other places — be it through a hybrid attack, be it through a sabotage attack, be it through a misunderstanding.” He added that the U.S. monitors reports carefully and raises concerns “with the right people at the right levels.” A State Department spokesperson told NBC News that Washington continues to monitor Russia’s hybrid activities and is working with allies to strengthen resilience.
Baltic States Urge Measured Response
European governments are taking precautionary steps. Lithuania has drawn up evacuation plans for older residents and lifted its ban on hosting nuclear weapons. Finland has urged citizens to be mentally prepared for further sabotage. France is developing a plan to protect critical national infrastructure.
All of this unfolds against the backdrop of Article 5, NATO’s collective defence clause, which obligates all members to treat an attack on one as an attack on all.
However, some voices in Europe are urging restraint. NATO’s Baltic member states have not raised their security threat levels. They note that Russia’s military remains heavily committed in Ukraine, where it continues to struggle to make significant progress. For now, those governments say there is no imminent risk of a direct Russian invasion.
Nevertheless, the broader concern across Europe is clear. Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign is growing bolder, and the continent is still searching for a unified answer to it.
