Washington, D.C. – Former U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly accused Canada of imposing unfair trade practices, specifically targeting the country’s dairy tariffs. During an April 3rd press conference at the White House, Trump claimed Canada slaps 250 to 300 percent tariffs on American dairy products — assertions he has made numerous times throughout his presidency and beyond.
However, experts and trade data suggest these claims are not only exaggerated but fundamentally misleading.
Tariffs Apply Only After Quota Limits
While it’s true that Canada’s over-quota tariffs on dairy products can be steep — reaching up to 285 percent in some cases — those tariffs only come into play once specific import thresholds, known as tariff rate quotas (TRQs), are exceeded. In reality, U.S. dairy exports rarely reach those levels, meaning the vast majority of American dairy enters Canada tariff-free.
“It’s a false claim,” says Bruce Muirhead, a dairy policy expert and history professor at the University of Waterloo. “Yes, those tariffs exist, but the U.S. has never actually hit the quota limit — with the possible exception of cheese.”
Muirhead explains that for nearly all other categories of dairy products, American exporters haven’t come close to maxing out their quota allocations. “In many cases, it’s zero tariffs — they haven’t even attempted to fill the quota.”
CUSMA Expanded Market Access
Ironically, the current trade structure was renegotiated and signed under Trump’s own administration. The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), implemented in 2020, increased U.S. access to Canada’s dairy market by expanding the TRQ limits.
Canada’s supply management system — often the target of political ire — limits imports in a manner that’s compliant with international trade rules. High over-quota tariffs are designed to protect domestic producers and maintain market stability.
“They just want to ensure that beyond the quota, nothing else floods the market,” said Muirhead. “And the U.S. has a similar system. In fact, their market is more closed than ours in percentage terms. It’s hypocritical.”
Trade Numbers Tell a Different Story
Despite Trump’s tough rhetoric, Canada remains one of the top destinations for U.S. dairy. In 2024, U.S. dairy exports to Canada topped $1.1 billion — an 82 percent increase over the past ten years. Canada is the second-largest export market for American dairy products, following Mexico.
Muirhead attributes the U.S.’s aggressive stance to its massive overproduction problem.
“They produce far more milk than their market or processing capacity can handle,” he said. “So, they’re pushing for access to Canada as a pressure release valve.”
The geography also plays a role. With key U.S. dairy-producing states located close to the Canadian border, Canada is a natural and convenient target for American exports. But Muirhead cautions that opening the floodgates could have disastrous consequences for Canada’s domestic industry.
“If you allow them unlimited access, you’ll lose your entire dairy sector,” he warned.
Political Symbolism Over Economic Substance
Interestingly, Muirhead noted that dairy is a minor player in the broader U.S.-Canada trade landscape, accounting for just 0.1 percent of total trade between the two nations.
“It’s totally insignificant,” he said. “Why would a president make such a big deal about it?”
The answer, he suggests, lies in the cultural power of dairy in American politics.
“In the U.S., dairy has a huge symbolic value,” he said. “Politicians across the board — Congress, Senate, White House — all prioritize it in ways we don’t really grasp in Canada. It’s less about economics, and more about emotion and political capital. And for Trump, it’s a message that resonates.”
