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During a press conference in the Oval Office on Friday afternoon, Trump was asked whether Canada, China, or Mexico could do anything to halt the impending tariffs. His response left no room for doubt.
“No, nothing. Not right now. No.”
When asked if he was seeking any “concession” from these countries, Trump simply replied, “We’ll just see what happens.”
Before Trump’s remarks, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reiterated the president’s justification for the tariffs, claiming that “massive amounts of fentanyl” were entering the U.S. from Canada.
“The president will be implementing a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China due to the illegal fentanyl that they have sourced and allowed to be distributed into our country, which has killed tens of millions of Americans,” Leavitt said.
Trump also pointed to what he claimed was a “$200 billion” U.S. trade deficit with Canada as another reason for imposing tariffs.
“Canada has treated us very unfairly, and I say, why should we be subsidizing Canada?” he stated.
However, data from TD Economics estimated the actual U.S. trade deficit with Canada in 2024 to be around $45 billion—a fraction of Trump’s figure. The report noted it was unclear where Trump got the $200 billion number, which is four to five times higher than official statistics.
Uncertainty Over Tariff Timing
Trump’s latest statements add further confusion regarding when the tariffs will actually take effect.
In late November, he initially threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office. That did not happen. Instead, he signed an executive order initiating a review of broader trade practices, with findings due by April 1. Later, he suggested tariffs could begin on February 1.
Despite Friday’s remarks, Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said the government has yet to receive “any concrete decision-making” or “specific details” from the White House about Trump’s intentions.
Trump Plans 10% Tariff on Canadian Oil
During the press conference, Trump provided new details about tariffs on oil and gas, stating they would take effect on February 18.
“I’m probably going to reduce the tariff a little bit on oil. We think we’re going to bring it down to 10%. So, it’s 25% overall, but 10% on the Canadian side.”
The U.S. is the primary buyer of Canadian crude oil, importing a record 4.3 million barrels per day as of October 2024 (U.S. Energy Information Administration).
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been advocating for oil and gas to be exempt from the tariffs.
“The Premier has been clear from the start that any tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Canadian goods will hurt American and Canadian consumers, workers, and businesses. That view has not changed,” said Smith’s press secretary, Sam Blackett.
Trump also announced plans for tariffs on steel and aluminum but did not specify which countries would be affected or when they would take effect.
Trudeau: ‘Canada Won’t Relent’
Canadian politicians have been preparing a potential retaliation plan in response to the tariffs.
On Friday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to Trump’s latest threats, declaring that Canada “won’t relent” until the tariffs are lifted. However, he warned that “difficult times” could be ahead.
“I won’t sugarcoat it. Our nation could be facing difficult times in the coming days and weeks,” Trudeau said at a meeting in Toronto on Canada-U.S. relations.
“I know Canadians might be anxious and worried. I want them to know that the federal government—and indeed, all levels of government—have their backs.”
Despite Trudeau’s warning, his administration is ready to respond with swift but measured action.
“We’re ready with a purposeful, forceful, but reasonable and immediate response.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed Trudeau’s comments.
“I think Justin Trudeau would be wise to talk to President Trump directly before making outlandish statements like that to the media.”
Canada’s Retaliation Plan
The federal government has devised a three-stage retaliation plan:
- Targeting a small list of U.S. consumer products, including Kentucky bourbon and Florida orange juice.
- Expanding tariffs to $37 billion worth of U.S. goods.
- If necessary, imposing additional tariffs on $110 billion worth of U.S. manufacturing and other products.
Border Security Efforts Fall Short?
Despite Canada’s $1.3 billion plan to strengthen border security, Trump continues to criticize Canada’s border policies.
Asked whether Canada’s border measures were implemented in vain, Public Safety Minister David McGuinty insisted progress was being made.
“We’ve made huge improvements on multiple fronts, including migration and the fentanyl problem. We continue to make progress and remain encouraged.”
However, Immigration Minister Marc Miller suggested the tariffs were not actually about border security.
“The facts set you free, and the facts we presented to the Americans today are important. I believe these discussions will influence Mr. Trump’s decision.”
According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP):
- 24,000 migrants were encountered crossing the U.S.-Canada border between October 2023 and September 2024.
- By comparison, 1.5 million migrants crossed from Mexico in the same period.
- Only 43 lbs of fentanyl was seized at the U.S.-Canada border in the past year, versus 21,148 lbs at the Mexico border.
Despite these statistics, Trump has not provided a timeline for his final tariff decision.
Wall Street Journal: Trump May Seek a Deal
The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Trump’s aides are exploring possible off-ramps to reduce tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
How Tariffs Will Hurt Both Sides
With Canada and the U.S. having deeply integrated economies, the tariffs could cause significant damage to both countries.
According to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce:
- A 25% tariff could shrink Canada’s GDP by 2.6% and cost households $1,900 per year.
- In the U.S., it could result in a 1.6% GDP drop and a $1,300 annual loss per household.
“We will see job losses and struggling businesses. It’s important to remember that 98% of Canadian employers are small or medium-sized enterprises.” — Matthew Holmes, Canadian Chamber of Commerce
To mitigate the impact, the federal government is considering a pandemic-scale stimulus package for businesses. However, its scope depends on the severity of Trump’s tariffs.
Holmes warned the government to be cautious with economic relief.
“If there’s one lesson from the pandemic, it’s that flooding the economy with government money can be a double-edged sword, contributing to inflation and supply chain disruptions.”
A Critical Moment for Canada-U.S. Trade
$3.6 billion in goods cross the Canada-U.S. border daily. Canada is the top export market for 34 U.S. states, supporting millions of jobs.
As the trade war looms, both economies stand to lose—but it remains to be seen whether Trump’s administration will follow through or seek a last-minute deal.
