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Ontario economic outlook continues to worsen as U.S. tariffs take a heavy toll. The government has cut its projections for growth, job creation, and the housing market in its latest Fall Economic Statement.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy presented the update on Thursday, warning lawmakers about deepening uncertainty. “We are facing trade pressures we did not create, but they now threaten Ontario’s economy and jobs,” he said.
Since the May budget, job creation estimates have dropped from 73,000 to 70,000. The province now expects only 35,000 new jobs next year, a slight rise from previous projections. Over the next four years, Ontario expects 1,000 fewer new jobs overall, with larger cuts expected by 2027.
Unemployment and Industry Challenges
The unemployment rate has risen to 7.8 percent and may stay above previous forecasts through 2028. More than 700,000 Ontarians are already jobless, according to government data.
Opposition Leader Marit Stiles blamed Premier Doug Ford for Ontario’s job struggles, calling him a “jobs disaster.” She warned that “many working people are uncertain if their plant will still be open tomorrow.”
The Ministry of Finance said industries hit hardest by U.S. tariffs—especially manufacturing, auto, and steel—continue to lose ground. Data from Statistics Canada show Ontario’s jobless rate reached 7.9 percent in September, compared to a national rate of 7.1 percent.
Government Response and Spending
Despite the grim numbers, the province pledged strong action. “Ontario is ready to do whatever it takes to protect workers and jobs,” the statement declared. The government has announced up to $30 billion in tariff-related support.
However, slow growth could derail Ontario’s plan to balance its budget by 2027–28. The deficit this year is about $1 billion lower than projected, but the risk of further slowdown remains.
Real GDP growth is forecast at 0.8 percent this year and 0.9 percent next year, possibly turning negative in a slow-growth scenario. Still, revenues rose by $3.2 billion, driven by stronger tax returns and public sector gains.
Tax Rebates and Election Law Changes
Ontario will rebate its share of the HST for first-time homebuyers, potentially saving buyers up to $80,000. Combined with federal relief, it could remove the full 13 percent sales tax. The program will cost $470 million over three years.
The statement also proposed major election law reforms. If passed, Ontario would abolish fixed election dates, extend the government’s term to five years, and lift spending limits on third-party groups.
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