Editor: Shapour -T
The Inverse Power Equation: How Israel and Iran’s Protesters Weakened the Regime in Favor of Trump and the Arabs
As the Middle East grapples with proxy wars, domestic repression, and intense geopolitical rivalries, Donald Trump’s return to power signals a profound shift in U.S. foreign policy — a shift bolstered by unprecedented Arab support and a growing Tel Aviv–Riyadh rapprochement. But if Trump today is on the verge of securing Arab investments, one crucial, often-overlooked factor made it possible: Israel — and more specifically, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel: The Silent but Decisive Player in Countering Iranian Influence
Under Biden, U.S. policy toward Iran revolved around dialogue and gradual pressure. But with the escalation of direct conflict between Iran and Israel in 2025, Netanyahu adopted a far more aggressive strategy — striking not only Iran’s military infrastructure in Syria and Lebanon but also penetrating deep into Iranian territory.
Israel managed to weaken Iran’s proxy capabilities in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. More critically, it exploited internal discontent in Iran to expose unprecedented security vulnerabilities at the heart of the IRGC and the Islamic Republic’s intelligence apparatus. Israel’s infiltration of sensitive Iranian institutions — now a daily headline — would have been impossible without internal support from within Iran itself.
The Protests — Led by Women — Formed the Frontline of Regime Erosion
This depth of infiltration wasn’t achieved by intelligence operations alone. The foundation was laid by a decade of continuous public unrest — especially the women-led protests. These movements forced the regime to focus on controlling its own population, diverting its attention and resources away from foreign threats.
Mass arrests, executions of protesters, censorship, and security crackdowns seemed to show the regime’s strength. In truth, they exposed its distraction. Iran’s internal security apparatus became entangled in domestic repression, allowing Israel and other players to penetrate its defenses with little resistance.
Trump, the Arabs, and an Opportunity Born from Iran’s Decline
Trump, ever the dealmaker, is capitalizing on a geopolitical reality shaped by others. The return of Republicans to power, Israel’s expanding regional influence, and the weakening of Iran-led resistance blocs have all boosted Arab confidence in a renewed U.S. alliance.
Projects like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 depend on American security backing. At the same time, the weakening of Iran’s allies — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen — has solidified faith in Trump and Israel as guarantors of a new Middle Eastern order.
Conclusion: People Power Meets Covert Intelligence
Analysts now speak openly about the Islamic Republic’s declining regional influence. But this is not solely due to Israeli strikes or Western strategic moves. It is also the result of the cries of Iranian women and men in the streets, of civil movements, and of silent acts of resistance that have eroded the regime’s legitimacy and focus.
Israel’s intelligence mastery merely exploited the cracks opened by the Iranian people’s courage. Today, the new balance of power not only serves Trump and his allies but may also herald a new chapter in Middle Eastern politics — one in which the oppressed have unknowingly reshaped the very map that once oppressed them.
