Mark Carney has led the Liberal Party to victory in Canada’s 2025 federal election, CTV News projected Monday night, in a campaign dominated by anxieties over affordability, U.S. tariffs, and threats of annexation from President Donald Trump. However, it remains unclear whether the Liberals will secure a majority or be forced to govern with a minority.
As of 10:35 p.m. EDT, the Liberals were leading or had secured 150 of 343 ridings — still short of the 172 needed for a majority. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives trailed with 128 ridings, ensuring they would remain the Official Opposition.
This defeat marks the fourth consecutive loss for the Conservatives against the Liberals, who have now held power since 2015.
Carney: The Banker-Turned-Prime Minister
Carney, a former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, took over Liberal leadership in March following Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Running on his credentials as an experienced economic steward, Carney promised to address Canada’s affordability crisis and stand firm against Trump’s aggressive rhetoric toward Canada.
In his Ottawa-area riding of Nepean, Carney scored a personal win, succeeding Liberal Chandra Arya, who was dropped earlier this year amid controversy over alleged foreign ties. Carney’s chief rival, Poilievre, defended his seat in the neighboring Carleton riding.
Carney’s win solidifies a decade of Liberal rule that began with Trudeau’s stunning 2015 victory over Stephen Harper. Yet like his predecessor, Carney faces a fractured nation: the Conservatives dominated rural regions and the Prairie provinces, while the Liberals held urban centers and Atlantic Canada.
A Major Blow to Conservatives
For much of the past year, it seemed inevitable that Poilievre would oust the Liberals. Public anger over inflation and affordability had driven Trudeau’s approval ratings to historic lows, and early polling gave the Conservatives a clear edge.
However, Trudeau’s departure and Carney’s swift leadership win shifted the dynamics. Carney scrapped the unpopular carbon tax and called a snap election for April 28, repositioning the Liberals as a refreshed, post-Trudeau party.
Trump’s incendiary comments about annexing Canada and imposing tariffs also changed the mood. A surge of Canadian nationalism, wary of creeping U.S. influence, bolstered Carney’s Liberals. Endorsements for Poilievre from Trump allies like Elon Musk and Joe Rogan may have alienated moderate voters uneasy about importing American-style populism.
Ultimately, the election became a referendum not just on affordability, but on who could best defend Canadian sovereignty against an unpredictable White House.
Carney’s Political Breakthrough
Carney’s rise from central banker to prime minister is unprecedented in Canadian history. Despite never holding elected office before, the Fort Smith, NWT native made a convincing case for experienced leadership in turbulent times.
“I’ve managed budgets, economies, and crises. Experience matters,” Carney told voters repeatedly during the campaign — a contrast to Poilievre’s populist messaging.
A Harvard and Oxford graduate, Carney spent over a decade at Goldman Sachs before entering public service. He won praise for guiding Canada through the 2008 global financial crisis and helping Britain navigate the Brexit fallout, even though he opposed the move.
His victory also carries historic significance: Carney is the first prime minister born in Canada’s North and only the third from west of Ontario.
The Road Ahead
Whether Carney leads with a majority or must negotiate a minority government, he faces immediate challenges. Tariff threats from the U.S., deep regional divisions within Canada, and ongoing concerns about the cost of living will demand swift action.
Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois are projected to lose ground, further consolidating Canada’s political landscape into a stark Liberal-Conservative contest.
Despite uncertainty about final seat counts, one thing is clear: Carney’s ascent has reshaped Canadian politics at a critical moment, offering voters a choice between seasoned experience and populist change — and they chose experience.
